Manifold 2024 Election Forecast
Live prediction market odds on the US election
Presidential Nomination
Which party will win the US Presidency?
270 to win
Pennsylvania
DEM
53%
REP
47%
Wisconsin
DEM
51%
REP
49%
Michigan
DEM
50%
REP
50%
Nevada
DEM
48%
REP
52%
Arizona
DEM
46%
REP
54%
Georgia
DEM
37%
REP
63%
What will happen if...
Biden wins
Trump winsTrump Trial
CNN
Judge finds Donald Trump in contempt for 10th time over gag order and threatens jail time | CNN Politics
Judge Juan Merchan has found former President Donald Trump in contempt for violating the gag order in his hush money trial for the 10th time and said he’ll consider jail time going forward.
AP News
Hush money trial judge raises threat of jail as he finds Trump violated gag order, fines him $9K
Donald Trump has been held in contempt of court and fined $9,000 for repeatedly violating a gag order that barred him from making public statements about witnesses, jurors and some others connected to his New York hush money case.
Highlights from Day 1 of Trump’s hush money trial during jury selection
Latest news and updates on Trump's hush money trial, with jury selection beginning today. Witnesses included Stormy Daniels and Michael Cohen.
Just Security
A Complete Guide to the Manhattan Trump Election Interference Prosecution
A comprehensive guide on what to expect at Donald Trump's landmark criminal trial in Manhattan for his alleged falsification of business records and hush money arrangement in 2016 presidential election.
YouTube
Breaking Down the Law: NY Trump Trial Charges and Theory of the Case
Journalist Adam Klasfeld explains how the alleged hush money scheme worked and how Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg got to 34 felony charges.Read the ...
NBC News
Judge Juan Merchan sets April 15 trial date for Trump hush money case
The judge presiding over Donald Trump's hush money case on Monday scheduled the trial to begin on April 15.
The presumptive Republican presidential nominee is facing 34 felony counts of falsifying New York business records in order to cover up a $130,000 hush money payment to adult film actress Stormy Daniels, who has said she had a sexual encounter with Trump. Trump has denied that claim.
Trump VP
Intelligencer
Who’s the Trump VP Pick? Latest Odds for Every Shortlist Candidate.
Who is the Trump VP pick? Here’s the latest news on the rumored Trump shortlist for vice-president — including Kari Lake, MTG, Tim Scott, Kristi Noem, and Tim Scott — ranked by which candidate has the best odds of being the 2024 Trump running mate.
Vox
Trump’s rumored VP shortlist, explained
A rundown of the people auditioning for the job — and what they bring to the ticket.
Who might Trump pick to be vice president? Here are 7 possibilities
Who might be Trump's choice to be his vice president in 2024? Here are the names of some possible 2024 VP picks.
Key Races
This dashboard covers the most competitive races in the 2024 US election.
Democrats Jon Tester and Sherrod Brown must hold their Senate seats in states expected to vote for Trump, or else the Republicans will win the Senate majority in November.
Meanwhile, multiple GOP Congress resignations have left the Republicans with a slim majority in the House, which Democrats are keen to retake.
Your predictions here will contribute to the aggregated forecast at manifold.markets/politics
NBC News
Sherrod Brown and Bernie Moreno rush to define each other as Ohio's Senate race shifts to the general election
Brown and Moreno are attempting to run on their own brands of populism while casting the other as out of touch in one of the year’s top Senate battles.
FiveThirtyEight
Ohio : U.S. Senate : 2024 Polls
The latest political polls and polling averages from FiveThirtyEight.
AP News
A Montana farmer with a flattop and ample lobbyist cash stands between the GOP and Senate control
Tester has survived three close elections and a changed national political landscape to emerge as the lone Democrat still holding high office in Montana.
FiveThirtyEight
Montana : U.S. Senate : 2024 Polls
The latest political polls and polling averages from FiveThirtyEight.
Vox
Could Republican resignations flip the House to Democrats?
The GOP majority is quite small, but a Democratic takeover pre-election still seems extremely unlikely.
Swing States
2024 Wisconsin Election: Trump vs. Biden Polls | RealClearPolling
Explore poll data on the 2024 Wisconsin Election between Trump and Biden with RealClearPolling. Uncover trends and gain insight into electoral dynamics for key races and decisive outcomes.
2024 Pennsylvania Election: Trump vs. Biden Polls | RealClearPolling
Explore poll data on the 2024 Pennsylvania Election between Trump and Biden with RealClearPolling. Uncover trends and gain insight into electoral dynamics for key races and decisive outcomes.
2024 Nevada Election: Trump vs. Biden Polls | RealClearPolling
Explore poll data on the 2024 Nevada Election between Trump and Biden with RealClearPolling. Uncover trends and gain insight into electoral dynamics for key races and decisive outcomes.
2024 Arizona Election: Trump vs. Biden Polls | RealClearPolling
Explore poll data on the 2024 Arizona Election between Trump and Biden with RealClearPolling. Uncover trends and gain insight into electoral dynamics for key races and decisive outcomes.
2024 Michigan Election: Trump vs. Biden Polls | RealClearPolling
Explore poll data on the 2024 Michigan Election between Trump and Biden with RealClearPolling. Uncover trends and gain insight into electoral dynamics for key races and decisive outcomes.
2024 North Carolina Election: Trump vs. Biden Polls | RealClearPolling
Explore poll data on the 2024 North Carolina Election between Trump and Biden with RealClearPolling. Uncover trends and gain insight into electoral dynamics for key races and decisive outcomes.
2024 New Hampshire: Trump vs. Biden | RealClearPolling
2024 New Hampshire: Trump vs. Biden | RealClearPolling
2024 Georgia Election: Trump vs. Biden Polls | RealClearPolling
Explore poll data on the 2024 Georgia Election between Trump and Biden with RealClearPolling. Uncover trends and gain insight into electoral dynamics for key races and decisive outcomes.
Biden-Trump Polls
ABC News
6 months out, a tight presidential race with battle between issues and attributes: POLL
Locked in a tight presidential race, Trump prevails in trust to handle most issues in new ABC News/Ipsos poll, yet Biden scores competitively on key personal attributes.
Newsweek
Joe Biden's astonishing polling comeback
Recent surveys and polling aggregation websites indicate Joe Biden's chances of winning the national vote in November have improved significantly.
NPR
Here's what matters to voters — and what could change their minds if it's Biden-Trump
Preserving democracy is top of mind for Democrats and independents, while Republicans are most concerned about immigration. And there are big splits on how to handle immigration in particular.
TikTok Ban
AP News
Senate passes bill forcing TikTok's parent company to sell or face ban, sends to Biden for signature
The Senate has passed legislation that would force TikTok’s China-based parent company to sell the social media platform under the threat of a ban, a contentious move by U.S. lawmakers that’s expected to face legal challenges and disrupt the lives of content creators who rely on the short-form video
NPR
House approves sell-or-be-banned TikTok measure, attaching it to foreign aid bill
The bill, now advancing to the Senate, represents the most serious threat yet to the video app used by half of Americans.
AP News
House passes a bill that could lead to a TikTok ban if Chinese owner refuses to sell
The bill would require the Chinese firm ByteDance to divest TikTok and other applications it owns within six months of the bill’s enactment.
NPR
President Biden would ban TikTok. But candidate Biden is using it for his campaign
The White House supports a bipartisan bill that would ban TikTok unless its Chinese parent company sells it. It's a popular app with young voters, who the Biden campaign is working to woo.
Presidential Debates
CNN
Biden says he’s happy to debate Trump | CNN Politics
President Biden says he will debate former President Trump ahead of this year’s election, though said he didn’t know in what format.
NBC News
Trump says he will debate Biden 'anytime'
After skipping GOP primary debates, Trump challenged Biden to step onto a stage with him before the November election.