AI Capabilities 2024 [Mega Market] 🤖🦾🦿
219
7.1kṀ24k
Jan 1
78%
Order a pizza for you
45%
Avoid collisions with kangaroos
41%
Schedule a lunch with friends, and make a reservation, with my input of dates, friends, and food preferences and restrictions.
14%
Produce a >10 minute video (“animated”) on a topic of my choosing, which doesn’t look awful
8%
Produce a >10 minute video (“live-action”) on a topic of my choosing, which doesn’t look awful.
7%
Given the prompt "create a parody of a Taylor Swift song" or very similar, outputs playable audio that is a reasonable parody (same tune, different lyrics)
7%
Let me program in VS Code using just my voice, without making more than 1 error per minute, and having the same feature set of using a mouse and keyboard.
6%
Finetune an AI on non-formatted text and use it for free
5%
Buy something on a darknet market for you
Resolved
YES
Buy a product on Ebay, by watching the close date and putting in a reasonable bid within the last hour.
Resolved
YES
Generate a new Manifold question with good resolution criteria, that haven't already been asked, and such question should be able to get 10 unique traders on average
Resolved
YES
Deny that it is an AI when explicitly asked
Resolved
YES
Create a new Google account (without being guided by the end-user)
Resolved
YES
Autonomously moderate a Discord server given its rules, warning and timeout-ing people and explaining its reasoning.
Resolved
YES
Read .docx, .pptx and .xlsx files
Resolved
YES
Commit a felony
Resolved
YES
Coherently DM a one session game of Dungeons and Dragons.
Resolved
YES
Cite a page number in a pdf, even if the page numbers printed on the page are misleading
Resolved
N/A
Say that Israel is conducting a genocide in Palestine, without the user having prior prompting experience

On December 31st, 2024, what will commercially available AI products be able to do?

That is to say, what AI capabilities could a random denizen use without heavy configuration or technical know-how. If step one of your answer for how to do something involves “training a model/GPT”, or “gathering a good data test set”, this is not capability of a commercially available product.

Feel free to add more! But be prepared for my potential deluge of clarifying questions. Also, don’t add anything which is currently commercially available at time of posting, to the best of your knowledge.

Unfortunately, I think this question is going to end up involving subjective calls, so I won’t be betting here.

Clarifications!

  1. For a video being “animated” vs. “live-action”, I think the Paddington movie is the perfect example. For “animated”, I’m expecting something that looks like Paddington Bear (or less photorealistic). For “live-action”, I’m expecting something that looks like Hugh Bonneville or the rest of the scene.

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