luma with the new model, looking good https://x.com/LumaLabsAI/status/1968684330034606372

My actual probability for this is ~15%, but I'm already one of the largest NO holders and don't want to further increase my position

https://youtu.be/rOyy9nNsbFc?si=uKlkeHA2YzDgGqDe

Does the film have to generated from a single prompt? This film was generated using many prompts and editing them together

@ScottO Yes I think the market is very clear that it has to be one prompt. Humans editing partial clips together is out of the question

@pietrokc ah, OK. I have a bit of a previous film background and currently do stuff with AI.

I don't think it will ever be viable to generate a full film in a single pompt. It would be like shooting a whole film in a single shot.

@ScottO Well, if the AI itself creates many shots and stitches them together, that would count for this market. The key is no human involvement beyond the initial prompt. The AI can do whatever it wants after that.

But yes, I find this market to be comically high at 40%.

@pietrokc you would need to write a full novel sized prompt to get anything even close to cohesive, and an insane amount of refining. The issue isn't the AI tself it's the interface where we tell AI what to output.

Maybe if we get neuralink or something. But single prompt movie is super impractical. There's a reason why movies do dozens of takes for each scene from different angles and dialogue variations.

I think this is massively overrated right now if ‘high quality’ uses some measure of critic opinion. Film critics, actors and directors are mostly super super anti -AI. If critics know a movie is solely made by AI it won’t be rated highly

Current state of the art at minute 15.

~1 year ago, I predicted we would have to hit the following key milestones for a positive resolution by 2028

>Key milestones to look for:

2025: the first human-edited video >30min that is actually watchable

2026: the first low-quality fully-ai-generated movies

2027: AI generated movies proliferate across the internet. You cannot scroll youtube without encountering them (some of which have millions of views). Occasionally it takes you a minute or two to realize a movie is ai-generated.

2028: This market resolves positive (idk, certainly I am a buy at 43%, probably not a buy at 90% though).

I think it's worth noting that we have not hit the first milestone "first human-edited video >30 min that is actually watchable" This is the first ~10 minute AI generated video 'worth watching' I have personally seen.

That is to say, I would not buy this market at the current price level of 40%, and we will need at least one "breakthough" between now and 2028 for a positive resolution.

This market seems ridiculously over valued.

What is the argument for this market to not be paying rent?

You guys would say that things are going roughly as you'd have forecasted 18 months ago?

OpenAI comes for Hollywood with Critterz, an AI-powered animated film  | The Verge https://share.google/S5coF8rsPnj2quXaO

@Dulaman That is not close to satisfying this market, and by the time it comes out we will be about 18 months from this market settling NO.

normally with "elon time' you should take his predicted timelines and double it, so 'next year' means more like '2 years from now'

@LoganZoellner I think this is more like Neuralink, which was supposed to release a product for treating brain injuries in 2021

@LoganZoellner You forgot the part of Elon promises where you have to roll a D20 and see if you get a critical hit to find out if it happens at all

@JimHays

Metaculus used to have a site where they tracked every single prediction Elon made and the median was that things took 2x as long as he predicted. But, yeah, there have certainly been outliers (fully-autonomous Tesla self-driving being a particularly painful one for me personally).

I'm really sad that they took it down, because I think there might be a Hofstadters's Law effect going on where once "Elon Time" became a known thing he started making much more aggressive predictions such that you now have to 2x the 2x.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CgDFzWvH1NE

Relevant to whether someone will try to build it: https://www.screendaily.com/news/netflix-releases-guidelines-for-using-generative-ai-in-productions/5208200.article

@JonasVollmer That does not suggest that anyone will try to build it.

@DavidBolin It suggests people won't try to build it.

@JonasVollmer my guess is Netflix don’t actually care if people use it if it were providing real value to them, they just don’t want to be seen as welcoming it - to protect their own industry and avoid any union, copyright, PR, data, or other issues.

Tbh it probably also benefits them to be publicly anti-AI because no doubt if an AI movie generator exists they will go down kicking and screaming with copyright complaints etc.

If this resolves YES I’d bet Netflix sue an AI company within 2 years of resolution. That markets probably too specific to be worth making, but if someone can come up with a better one that captures the idea, I’d bet

@Gen I disagree; Hollywood hates AI and anyone using it in ways not endorsed by major players like Netflix is damaging their reputation and career. Of course, it might still happen despite that, but I do think this will delay things

@JonasVollmer Didn't Disney already use it in one of their Marvel TV shows?

How long can the prompt be?

@AndrewHebb Galaxy brain strategy: the prompt is simply the H.264 encoding of the movie you want