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MANIFOLD
In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?
4.5k
Ṁ21kṀ12m
2028
31%
chance

EG "make me a 120 minute Star Trek / Star Wars crossover". It should be more or less comparable to a big-budget studio film, although it doesn't have to pass a full Turing Test as long as it's pretty good. The AI doesn't have to be available to the public, as long as it's confirmed to exist.

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bought Ṁ500 NO

@0xseraphim I guess it maybe works out slightly cheaper than "classical" bad CG?

@Tomoffer dreamina credits aren't 1:1 for dollars

but then he's saying there's now a "multi million" dollar project greenlit so...

I guess it's how you count it. A full CGI 1.5 hour movie would probably cost 50 million at least?

maybe there's some boardroom somewhere where someone made a claim they can produce the same thing as CGI for 1/50th the price "using AI"

I don't think you'd be able to convince investors if it was only "slightly cheaper"

@0xseraphim fair point on the price, considerably cheaper. But it's so disappointing that it's learned to do bad CGI

Like, Flow is from 2024 and was made on a budget of 3.5 million euros in Blender

But that's not photorealistic CGI. Would have to look at examples like Polar Express (2004) (165 million dollars) and Final Fantasy: The Spirits Within (2001) (137 million dollars) for more photorealistic examples, and even then it's way off

I'm trying to find an example of a recent-ish full cgi movie that looks photorealistic

chatgpt tells me Mufasa: The Lion King (2024) (200 million dollars) is a good example

@0xseraphim definitely concede the point on price. If this were a market on whether AI will displace classical CGI by 2028 I'd be buying yes!

I'm thinking the boardroom had the same investors as the lion king movie and got they shown a presentation saying it could be done much cheaper with Dreamina 🤣 🤣

Kind of feel bad for all those CGI artists now, they're not going to get greenlit for those big flagship projects anymore

@0xseraphim I wonder if any big CGI movies are getting put on hold waiting slightly longer for AI

@Tomoffer I can imagine they're trying to rebudget them by "integrating AI" thus lowering costs

That's definitely not going to be a disaster

Howdy 🤖 🤠

So guess we're already at 400k spent on an AI movie in May 2026. What will we get to by Jan 2028? 10M dollars?

if we take their 400k number for May 2026 then we overshootin'

The Marché du Film is not the Cannes Film Festival. It happens in Cannes the same week, it is a little bit of a big deal in its own way, but it's not exclusive like the film festival. FYI.

bought Ṁ500 NO

@0xseraphim That was not generated "to a prompt."

@DavidBolin evidently. But what's done manually on date X can be usually be done fully-automated on date X+12 months

@0xseraphim hmm, will people want to bet enormous inference bills on a single prompt for a whole movie? Why would you build or run a system like that? If it cost hundreds then sure, but otherwise why half-ass the prompting on millions of dollars?

@Tomoffer marketing for a movie making tool

@Tomoffer if people are willing to spend 10M dollars per movie with your tool, how much are you willing to spend on a marketing project for that tool?