I will place a decently sized NO limit order at 40% on this market. If no more than 20 people (excluding me) bet NO, the market resolves YES, and you get the mana from my limit order by betting YES against it. If more than 20 distinct people aside from me bet NO, the market resolves NO. The liquidity of the market is low, so you get very little personally from betting NO.

"Betting NO" counts the number of distinct people who have (except for me of course, putting the initial limit order) placed a NO trade or filled, even partially, a NO limit order, at any time. Selling a YES share does not count as betting NO. This will be resolved based on the trade log history.

As an example, if 21 distinct people bet NO, the market would resolve NO.

Resolves YES if the defection threshold is not reached by the end of the market.

I will not bet on this market aside from that, and will not use any alt accounts or rigging.