nrims's calibration
Grade: B-, Score: -2.63
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when nrims bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
20%
30%
40%
50%
- Will a leading AI organization in the United States be the target of an anti-AI attack or protest by the end of 2023?NOṀ70
- Will a GPT4-equivalent model be able to run on consumer hardware before 2024?NOṀ40
- Will there have been a noticeable sector-wide economic effect from a new AI technology by the end of 2023?NOṀ30
60%
70%
- Upon given equation for addition of 1 digit natural numbers, will DALLE-3 output correct answer in the image? ($3k sub)NOṀ100
- 41. Will an image model win Scott Alexander’s bet on compositionality, to Edwin Chen’s satisfaction, in 2023?NOṀ100
- Will Elon Musk announce the creation of a new AI company before 2024?YESṀ80
80%
90%
95%