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@a A glimpse of things to come

@a A few people were trying to transfer shares via challenge bets, which is still possible even after the market is closed. Due to a bug, they ended up with both positive and negative shares, so they asked me to reopen the market for a moment so they could place a M$1 bet to make their shares cancel, and I obliged. I'll resolve the market once they're done transferring shares.

@IsaacKing Interesting, challenge bets seem quite buggy.

@a Yeah, I think they're going to be removed. Hopefully Manifold gives us the ability to just transfer shares directly.

Also props on the quick M$10 bet. I'll refund you for that. :)

FYI, the reason we were trying to transfer shares was to make the profit shown in the market more accurate, because we had a group that participated in a joint investment and we ended up with shares split very unevenly across different people. In other words, we were doing it to avoid accidentally boosting one person up on the leaderboard and another person down unfairly.

@IsaacKing Interesting, I was not able to replicate that bug on /Yev/will-there-be-any-trades-on-this-ma before I resolved it.

Also, my own profits ended up inaccurate on this market because I didn't have enough liquid mana to move the shares due to the aforementioned bug. I instead fixed the discrepancy by transferring shares on the derivative market https://manifold.markets/BionicD0LPH1N/will-isaac-kings-69-market-resolve. Just in case anyone sees my weird profit numbers on these two markets and is wondering what's going on - this is all honest and aboveboard to try to make the profits accurate.

@Austin is working on a feature for a new market type (certificates/stocks) that I think will help with this sort of thing - when forming a joint venture, one could invest in a stock, and then the stock could pay out the profits as dividends.

M6.9 for resolving N/A

@XComhghall I will reveal my troo identity if you don't rezolve it till 1/5/2023

@Spindle u also have to then rezolve it so I get my traunches back

@Spindle That's a pretty good bribe! Unfortunately it came in just a little too late.

@IsaacKing i'm sure u can find a way to get my traunches back. If u cant then my identity will be 4ever a MYSTERY

@Homer There were people (on both sides I believe) who asked for the market to remain open until the original close date. Partly this is to avoid technically modifying the resolution criteria - if it resolves early, then that technically changes the "time it remains open". I really doubt anyone would actually object on that basis, but it's still safer just to wait. And this is one reason why I like making references to an explicit deadline rather than the "close date".

@9d58 Do the right thing, buy 10000 mana into Yes. I believe in you.

Isaac in particular has a reputation of caring a lot about resolving correctly. If you want to bet on your stated beliefs, I've offered a limit order at 1%.

@9d58 I think you are just projecting. Not everyone is a Liar like you 😝

@Norman I've found a market where YES team can have a little victory (totally not promoting it for my own gains) https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-this-market-get-at-least-100-u-d9e20cc8a170?referrer=9d58

@Mira This was all for you, @MattCWilson

@Mira dawwwwwwh ☺️

@MattCWilson Subscribe me for that Whale Watchers ep - must see!

@MattCWilson @Mira

Unfortunately the Yes side game up too early. I didn't even get to display my true power

@IsaacKing We can rest assured that the close date and time will not be altered, and that you will resolve the market correctly despite any bribes solicited, right?

@XComhghall For comparison: https://pastebin.com/R3iZ8dFm – R script that calculates the key stats for this market using API data. It passes some sanity checks, but I can’t fully guarantee it's correct. Results as of 5 minutes ago, formatted for Manifold readability:

Time spent at a probability greater than or equal to 0.69: 195917s (~2.27 days).

Time spent below 0.69: 235895.8s (~2.73 days).

In proportion to the originally declared market duration: 34.3% time over, 41.3% under (and 24.3% remaining).

Using 0.685 instead of 0.69 (to align with the rounding on graphs) changes this to 35.5% over, and 40.2% under.

The numbers are somewhat different from yours (unclear why – I don’t really vouch I didn’t make a mistake), but the overall conclusion is the same. We could try to compare the tabulated timeline under both methods, but I’m not sure it’s worth the time.

@MichaelWheatley gracias

For the market to resolve to YES, the NO limit orders alone require M161,869.86 to break through, and the probability may remain < 69% for no more than 13h.

@XComhghall So 12 hours from now, a group controlling M$100,000 or more is going to switch their limit orders from NO to YES and make a killing. (With 10% probability :)

@XComhghall Not really 161k mana needed, if some of the orders are fake and some are removed by a person switching sides.

Exactly, the M161k probably assumes that all limit orders will be paid in full. When I enter M$42425 in the box to buy YES shares, it says the New Probability would be 80%, meaning it breaks through. Or maybe that new probability thing is broken, I'm not sure.

Yeah, I think the new probability should be correct.

It's actually not that improbable. Preen said they were willing to buy 1m mana. They could easily sell their NO at great prices right now, then reverse and buy YES for a potentially massive profit.

@BionicD0LPH1N That is likely the case. It says that the new probability would be 80% for any amount from M42,116 to M79,292, yet at M42,115, the new probability shows 68%.

Liquidity and probability change is quite difficult for me to understand or calculate. But I am fairly confident that my formula for the mana/share ratio, YES/NO leverage, is correct.

ouch

@AlexRockwell be the change you wish to see in securities

@IsaacKing what's your happy price in real money to resolve the market N/A?

@IsaacKing Ṁ69

@IsaacKing trying to lose that trustworthyish badge are we?

@AlexRockwell The community guidelines don't say anything about soliciting bribes!

@IsaacKing As long as you solicit the bribes and then resolve the market accurately in spite of the bribes, yeah, I think you're in the clear.

@IsaacKing I offer m69 to extend the close date to 2023 to give the yes forces more time and to increase the amount of drama. This does not conflict with the current market description.

@IsaacKing As long as we are all negotiating with financial terrorists, I will accept a bribe of 1000 mana to not report the market when you resolve it incorrectly 😂

@Austin can we have a ruling on whether you'd intervene if Isaac puts the close date up for auction?

@MartinRandall I mean, the market description doesn't say anything, so I could do pretty much whatever I want without conflict with it.

The title, on the other hand...

@IsaacKing Maybe extend it by 69 days. Seems like a nice number.

@Gurkenglas if Austin were to intervene I'd have to unintervene the intervening

ps most of us will be asleep on vacation starting friday to end of next week so it's basically the purge. have fun

now, if @NinthCause were to intervene I'd have nothing to say about that

@IsaacKing I'll give Ṁ50,000 for you to resolve it N/A just to piss off the whales who put a lot of effort into winning, and the whales like Mira who switched sides at a loss

@Jacknaut I'll add Ṁ1000 to that

@Jacknaut I don't think it'd piss off anybody who switched sides at a loss

@jfjurchen How not? Am I confused on how it works? If you bought a bunch of yes at 69%, then sold the Yes below that (say 50%) to buy NO, then your losses are locked in, but you have the chance to gain it back if the market resolves NO.

If market resolves N/A you don't get a profit, and you keep the losses, no?

@Jacknaut Resolving N/A rolls back ALL trades on the market - profits are clawed back, but losses are reimbursed. If you daytrade a market and lose money you're thrilled for it to resolve N/A.

@Jacknaut When a market resolves N/A, all the trades that happened on it are reversed, even gains and losses you already cashed out. (It makes sense that it has to work this way because otherwise N/A resolution would create or destroy mana out of thin air, which would be bad.)

@jack Oh, rip. ty for info.

@Jacknaut I have a related post with way more details https://manifold.markets/post/binary-markets-and-na