I will resolve this based on some combination of how much it gets talked about in elections, how much money goes to interest groups on both topics, and how much of the "political conversation" seems to be about either.

Politics

Scott Alexander's 5 year predictions

US Politics

Medicine 

Abortion

IE "make me a 120 minute Star Trek / Star Wars crossover". It should be more or less comparable to a big-budget studio film, although it doesn't have to pass a full Turing Test as long as it's pretty good. The AI doesn't have to be available to the public, as long as it's confirmed to exist.

Technology

AI Media Creation

Resolves YES if GPT-5 is publicly released before Jan 1, 2025; resolves NO otherwise.

Update from March 18: If the next OpenAI flagship model deviates from the GPT-N naming scheme 

 that is going to be released from OpenAI (e.g. they completely changed the trajectory of their naming scheme) then I will count it as "GPT-5" regardless.

However, if the next flagship model is not called GPT-5 but still conforms to the OpenAI GPT-N naming scheme (e.g. GPT-4.5) 

there will eventually be a model called GPT-5

 that will be released (i.e. they are going to continue with the same naming scheme) then I will not count it as "GPT-5".

🤖 AI

🖥️ Technology

🤖 OpenAI

GPT-5 Speculation

ChatGPT

YouTube

Entertainment

Hardware

Rabbit R1

Resolves YES if any instance Llama 3 400B tops GPT-4 turbo (currently in 1st place) in the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard within a year of its release.

LLama

GPT-4

LLMs

LLama 3

AGI strictly refers to strong AI that surpasses or matches humans at every task. Any architecture that primarily relies on using next-token prediction, such as GPT 4 or Claude 3 would count as an LLM. 

'harri':4 'potter':5 'severus':1 'snape':2

'cersei':1 'game':4 'lannist':2 'throne':6

'code':4 'geass':5 'lamperoug':2 'lelouch':1

Harry-James-Potter-Evans-Verres (from HPMOR)

'evan':5 'harri':2 'harry-james-potter-evans-verr':1 'hpmor':8 'jame':3 'potter':4 'verr':6

'anti':4 'anti-centrist':3 'centrist':5 'jreg':1 'satir':2

'solution':3 'techno':2 'techno-solution':1

'nuclear':4 'start':3 'war':5 'willing':1

You can help us in resolving options by spending at least 1 mana on each person/character/concept you have an opinion on. Buy YES if you think it's a right-wing thing, and NO if you think it's a left-wing thing.

You can submit any person/character/concept (shortened to p/c/c for the rest of the description), as well as a link / short phrase to give traders some context. If other people trade on your submission, you'll get mana off of their transaction fees.

I may N/A options for quality control, or edit them to provide a more neutral summary.

As a trader, you should buy any amount of YES in p/c/c you think are Right-Wing, buy any amount of NO in p/c/c you think are Left-Wing. I will leave the definition of those terms up to you. The amount of shares doesn't matter for the resolution, one share of yes is one vote and one hundred shares of yes is also one vote.

If I think you are voting purely as a troll, such as buying no in every option, I may block you or disregard your votes. Please vote in good faith! But hey, I can't read your mind. Ultimately this market is on the honor system. 

Note that market prices will be a bit strange here, because this is simultaneously a market and a poll. If you sell your shares, you are also removing your vote. I have unranked the market so it will not impact leagues. 

The market will close every Sunday at Noon EST. I will then check the positions tab on options that have been submitted. 

If there is a clear majority of YES holders, the option resolves YES. If there is a clear majority of NO holders, the option resolves NO. If it's very close and votes are still coming in, the option will remain un-resolved. The market will then re-open for new submissions, with a new close date the next week. This continues as long as I think the market is worth running. It does not matter what % the market is at, and bots holding a position are also counted. In a tie, the tweet will not resolve that week.

I may update these exact criteria to better match the spirit of the question if anyone has any good suggestions, so please leave a comment if you do.

🎨 Culture

🍿 Entertainment and Pop Culture

✖️ X (Twitter)

The 2s are a hint about a "2 AM edition" of Tortured Poets' Society

'2':8 '2s':2 'edit':10 'hint':5 'poet':13 'societi':14 'tortur':12

The 2s are hint about something that will be announced/released at 2 AM eastern time, April 19th

'19th':17 '2':12 '2s':2 'announced/released':10 'april':16 'eastern':14 'hint':4 'someth':6 'time':15

The 2s are a hint about something that will be announced/released 2 weeks after April 19th

'19th':16 '2':12 '2s':2 'announced/released':11 'april':15 'hint':5 'someth':7 'week':13

The 2s are a hint about an entire second album that will be announced/released

'2s':2 'album':10 'announced/released':14 'entir':8 'hint':5 'second':9

Hint about her and Travis Kelce as a couple

The 2s are a hint for the score Anthony Fantano will give the album

'2s':2 'album':14 'anthoni':9 'fantano':10 'give':12 'hint':5 'score':8

Related to previously unreleased collaborators

'collabor':5 'previous':3 'relat':1 'unreleas':4

The 2s were just about the Fortnight CD https://www.reddit.com/r/TaylorSwift/comments/1c79z5l/countdown_til_2pm_on_her_merch_site_was_for/

'/r/taylorswift/comments/1c79z5l/countdown_til_2pm_on_her_merch_site_was_for/':11 '2s':2 'cd':8 'fortnight':7 'www.reddit.com':10 'www.reddit.com/r/taylorswift/comments/1c79z5l/countdown_til_2pm_on_her_merch_site_was_for/':9

The 2s were just about the Fortnight music video

Taylor Swift's new album comes out tomorrow. In the build up to the release, there have been theories that Taylor has been hinting about some kind of surprise involving the number 2.

This market resolves based on what we believe all these hints were a reference to, if anything. If something is unclear, it will resolve N/A. I reserve the right to edit options added for clarity. I'll resolve options early if the truth becomes clear, or else wait 30 days and then resolve based on what we know at the time.

👸 Taylor Swift

🧑‍🎤 Celebrities

Boston Red Sox beat Atlanta Braves - 12pm

'12pm':7 'atlanta':5 'beat':4 'boston':1 'brave':6 'red':2 'sox':3

St. Louis Cardinals beat Houston Astros - 12pm

'12pm':7 'astro':6 'beat':4 'cardin':3 'houston':5 'loui':2 'st':1

Tampa Bay Rays beat Philadelphia Phillies - 12pm

'12pm':7 'bay':2 'beat':4 'philadelphia':5 'philli':6 'ray':3 'tampa':1

Chicago White Sox beat Milwaukee Brewers - 2pm

'2pm':7 'beat':4 'brewer':6 'chicago':1 'milwauke':5 'sox':3 'white':2

Oakland Athletics beat Cleveland Guardians - 2pm

'2pm':6 'athlet':2 'beat':3 'cleveland':4 'guardian':5 'oakland':1

Texas Rangers beat Arizona Diamondbacks 2pm

'2pm':6 'arizona':4 'beat':3 'diamondback':5 'ranger':2 'texa':1

Colorado Rockies beat Kansas City Royals 2pm

'2pm':7 'beat':3 'citi':5 'colorado':1 'kansa':4 'rocki':2 'royal':6

Seattle Mariners beat Los Angeles Angels 2pm

'2pm':7 'angel':5,6 'beat':3 'los':4 'marin':2 'seattl':1

Detroit Tigers beat Toronto Blue Jays 5pm

'5pm':7 'beat':3 'blue':5 'detroit':1 'jay':6 'tiger':2 'toronto':4

New York Mets beat Washington Nationals 5pm

'5pm':7 'beat':4 'met':3 'nation':6 'new':1 'washington':5 'york':2

New York Yankees beat Detroit Tigers - 5:30pm

'30pm':8 '5':7 'beat':4 'detroit':5 'new':1 'tiger':6 'yanke':3 'york':2

'7pm':6 'beat':3 'chicago':4 'cincinnati':1 'cub':5 'red':2

San Francisco Giants beat Los Angeles Dodgers 8pm

'8pm':8 'angel':6 'beat':4 'dodger':7 'francisco':2 'giant':3 'los':5 'san':1

Atlanta Braves beat Pittsburgh Pirates - 12pm

'12pm':6 'atlanta':1 'beat':3 'brave':2 'pirat':5 'pittsburgh':4

Philadelphia Phillies beat Houston Astros - 12pm

'12pm':6 'astro':5 'beat':3 'houston':4 'philadelphia':1 'philli':2

Pittsburgh Pirates beat Minnesota Twins - 12pm

'12pm':6 'beat':3 'minnesota':4 'pirat':2 'pittsburgh':1 'twin':5

Toronto Blue Jays beat New York Yankees - 12pm

'12pm':8 'beat':4 'blue':2 'jay':3 'new':5 'toronto':1 'yanke':7 'york':6

'2pm':6 'beat':3 'chicago':1 'cub':2 'marin':5 'seattl':4

Cleveland Guardians beat Chicago White Sox - 2pm

'2pm':7 'beat':3 'chicago':4 'cleveland':1 'guardian':2 'sox':6 'white':5

Texas Rangers beat Kansas City Royals 2pm

'2pm':7 'beat':3 'citi':5 'kansa':4 'ranger':2 'royal':6 'texa':1

Arizona Diamondbacks beat Chicago Cubs - 2pm

'2pm':6 'arizona':1 'beat':3 'chicago':4 'cub':5 'diamondback':2

Los Angeles Angels beat Colorado Rockies - 2pm

'2pm':7 'angel':2,3 'beat':4 'colorado':5 'los':1 'rocki':6

Milwaukee Brewers beat Oakland Athletics - 2pm

'2pm':6 'athlet':5 'beat':3 'brewer':2 'milwauke':1 'oakland':4

Baltimore Orioles beat Detroit Tigers - 5pm

'5pm':6 'baltimor':1 'beat':3 'detroit':4 'oriol':2 'tiger':5

Washington Nationals beat St. Louis Cardinals - 5pm

'5pm':7 'beat':3 'cardin':6 'loui':5 'nation':2 'st':4 'washington':1

'5pm':7 'beat':3 'marlin':2 'met':6 'miami':1 'new':4 'york':5

Los Angeles Dodgers beat Cincinnati Reds - 7pm

'7pm':7 'angel':2 'beat':4 'cincinnati':5 'dodger':3 'los':1 'red':6

San Diego Padres beat San Francisco Giants - 7pm

'7pm':8 'beat':4 'diego':2 'francisco':6 'giant':7 'padr':3 'san':1,5

Oakland Athletics beat Milwaukee Brewers - 8pm

'8pm':6 'athlet':2 'beat':3 'brewer':5 'milwauke':4 'oakland':1

Houston Astros beat Washington Nationals - 11am

'11am':6 'astro':2 'beat':3 'houston':1 'nation':5 'washington':4

Atlanta Braves beat Baltimore Orioles - 12pm

'12pm':6 'atlanta':1 'baltimor':4 'beat':3 'brave':2 'oriol':5

Detroit Tigers beat Pittsburgh Pirates - 12pm

'12pm':6 'beat':3 'detroit':1 'pirat':5 'pittsburgh':4 'tiger':2

Minnesota Twins beat New York Yankees - 12pm

'12pm':7 'beat':3 'minnesota':1 'new':4 'twin':2 'yanke':6 'york':5

Philadelphia Phillies beat Toronto Blue Jays - 12pm

'12pm':7 'beat':3 'blue':5 'jay':6 'philadelphia':1 'philli':2 'toronto':4

St. Louis Cardinals beat New York Mets - 12pm

'12pm':8 'beat':4 'cardin':3 'loui':2 'met':7 'new':5 'st':1 'york':6

'2pm':6 'beat':3 'chicago':1 'colorado':4 'cub':2 'rocki':5

Cleveland Guardians beat Los Angeles Angels - 2pm

'2pm':7 'angel':5,6 'beat':3 'cleveland':1 'guardian':2 'los':4

Kansas City Royals beat Arizona Diamondbacks - 2pm

'2pm':7 'arizona':5 'beat':4 'citi':2 'diamondback':6 'kansa':1 'royal':3

Los Angeles beat Dodgers Texas Rangers - 2pm

'2pm':7 'angel':2 'beat':3 'dodger':4 'los':1 'ranger':6 'texa':5

San Francisco beat Giants Oakland Athletics - 2pm

'2pm':7 'athlet':6 'beat':3 'francisco':2 'giant':4 'oakland':5 'san':1

Arizona Diamondbacks beat Cincinnati Reds - 2pm

'2pm':6 'arizona':1 'beat':3 'cincinnati':4 'diamondback':2 'red':5

Milwaukee Brewers beat Seattle Mariners - 2pm

'2pm':6 'beat':3 'brewer':2 'marin':5 'milwauke':1 'seattl':4

San Diego Padres beat Chicago White Sox - 2pm

'2pm':8 'beat':4 'chicago':5 'diego':2 'padr':3 'san':1 'sox':7 'white':6

Oakland Athletics beat Milwaukee Brewers - 3pm

'3pm':6 'athlet':2 'beat':3 'brewer':5 'milwauke':4 'oakland':1

'4pm':8 'bay':2 'beat':4 'boston':5 'ray':3 'red':6 'sox':7 'tampa':1

Washington Nationals beat Miami Marlins - 5pm

'5pm':6 'beat':3 'marlin':5 'miami':4 'nation':2 'washington':1

Baltimore Orioles beat Toronto Blue Jays - 12pm

'12pm':7 'baltimor':1 'beat':3 'blue':5 'jay':6 'oriol':2 'toronto':4

Boston Red Sox beat  Tampa Bay Rays - 12pm

'12pm':8 'bay':6 'beat':4 'boston':1 'ray':7 'red':2 'sox':3 'tampa':5

'12pm':6 'astro':2 'beat':3 'houston':1 'marlin':5 'miami':4

Minnesota Twins beat Washington Nationals - 12pm

'12pm':6 'beat':3 'minnesota':1 'nation':5 'twin':2 'washington':4

New York Yankees beat Atlanta Braves - 12pm

'12pm':7 'atlanta':5 'beat':4 'brave':6 'new':1 'yanke':3 'york':2

Pittsburgh Pirates beat Philadelphia Phillies - 12pm

'12pm':6 'beat':3 'philadelphia':4 'philli':5 'pirat':2 'pittsburgh':1

Toronto Blue Jays beat Baltimore Orioles (different game) - 12:07pm

'07pm':10 '12':9 'baltimor':5 'beat':4 'blue':2 'differ':7 'game':8 'jay':3 'oriol':6 'toronto':1

Miami Marlins beat St. Louis Cardinals - 12pm

'12pm':7 'beat':3 'cardin':6 'loui':5 'marlin':2 'miami':1 'st':4

'12pm':7 'beat':4 'detroit':5 'met':3 'new':1 'tiger':6 'york':2

Cincinnati Reds beat Cleveland Guardians - 3pm

'3pm':6 'beat':3 'cincinnati':1 'cleveland':4 'guardian':5 'red':2

Los Angeles Dodgers beat Arizona Diamondbacks - 3pm

'3pm':7 'angel':2 'arizona':5 'beat':4 'diamondback':6 'dodger':3 'los':1

Oakland Athletics beat Kansas City Royals - 3pm

'3pm':7 'athlet':2 'beat':3 'citi':5 'kansa':4 'oakland':1 'royal':6

San Francisco Giants beat Chicago White Sox - 3pm

'3pm':8 'beat':4 'chicago':5 'francisco':2 'giant':3 'san':1 'sox':7 'white':6

'3pm':6 'beat':3 'chicago':4 'cub':5 'ranger':2 'texa':1

Colorado Rockies beat Milwaukee Brewers - 3pm

'3pm':6 'beat':3 'brewer':5 'colorado':1 'milwauke':4 'rocki':2

Los Angeles Angels beat San Diego Padres - 3pm

'3pm':8 'angel':2,3 'beat':4 'diego':6 'los':1 'padr':7 'san':5

Atlanta Braves beat Minnesota Twins - 12pm

'12pm':6 'atlanta':1 'beat':3 'brave':2 'minnesota':4 'twin':5

Boston Red Sox beat Pittsburgh Pirates - 12pm

'12pm':7 'beat':4 'boston':1 'pirat':6 'pittsburgh':5 'red':2 'sox':3

Houston Astros beat Detroit Tigers - 12pm

'12pm':6 'astro':2 'beat':3 'detroit':4 'houston':1 'tiger':5

New York Yankees beat Baltimore Orioles - 12pm

'12pm':7 'baltimor':5 'beat':4 'new':1 'oriol':6 'yanke':3 'york':2

Philadelphia Phillies beat New York Yankees - 12pm

'12pm':7 'beat':3 'new':4 'philadelphia':1 'philli':2 'yanke':6 'york':5

St. Louis Cardinals beat Washington Nationals - 12pm

'12pm':7 'beat':4 'cardin':3 'loui':2 'nation':6 'st':1 'washington':5

Tampa Bay Rays beat Toronto Blue Jays - 12pm

'12pm':8 'bay':2 'beat':4 'blue':6 'jay':7 'ray':3 'tampa':1 'toronto':5

Chicago White Sox beat Colorado Rockies - 3pm

'3pm':7 'beat':4 'chicago':1 'colorado':5 'rocki':6 'sox':3 'white':2