Will a nuclear weapon be detonated by the end of 2023?

Nuclear Risk•New Year's Resolutions 2024

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This question will resolve as YES if any nuclear weapon is detonated anywhere in the world after October 29, 2022 and before January 1, 2024. Otherwise NO.

A test detonation would result in the question resolving as YES.
A detonation would resolve YES regardless of whether it is deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised
Detonation means nuclear explosion. If a nuclear weapon were launched/dropped/etc but the nuclear weapon did not detonate (due to malfunction, interception, etc), that would not count as detonation. If a conventional explosion occurs but no nuclear explosion, that does not count.

This is an extension of @jack's market of 2022 detonation:

See https://manifold.markets/post/nuclear-risk-forecasting for a dashboard of other nuclear risk questions along with commentary and analysis.

Oct 29, 6:17pm: ~~Will a nuclear weapon be detonated by Dec 31, 2023?~~ → Will a nuclear weapon be detonated by the end of 2023?

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bought Ṁ98 of NO

NNSA conducts experiment to improve U.S. ability to detect foreign nuclear explosions | Department of Energy https://www.energy.gov/nnsa/articles/nnsa-conducts-experiment-improve-us-ability-detect-foreign-nuclear-explosions-0

NNSA conducts experiment to improve U.S. ability to detect foreign nuclear explosions

A team led by NNSA a subsurface chemical explosion at the Nevada National Security Site to improve the United States’ ability to detect low-yield nuclear explosions around the world.

bought Ṁ50 of YES

https://www.foxnews.com/us/us-conducts-nuclear-test-nevada-hours-russian-move-revoke-global-nuclear-test-ban

US conducts nuclear test in Nevada hours after Russian move to revoke global test ban

The U.S. conducted a high-explosive experiment at a nuclear test site in Nevada on Wednesday as tensions flare over Russia's nuclear ambitions.

bought Ṁ35 of YES

https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-russia-conduct-a-nuclear-weapo arbitrage hasn't converged between these two and this market

Will Russia conduct a nuclear weapons test by the end of 2023?

9% chance.

predicted YES

@L https://manifold.markets/jack/will-north-korea-conduct-a-nuclear-36f06f22f954

Will North Korea conduct a nuclear weapons test by end of 2023?

21% chance. Resolves YES if North Korea tests a nuclear weapon before the end of 2023. NO otherwise. I will refer to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_weapons_tests_of_North_Korea and reliable media reporting for resolution. I will use local time in Korea. Background In 2022, North Ko…

bought Ṁ0 of NO

I don't see any other country besides North Korea detonating a nuke in the foreseeable future.

Russia detonating a nuke in Ukraine is dubious, it will incur massive backlash and probably will mean the end of the war as the entire globe will likely condemn them.

On top of that North Korea hasn't conducted any nuclear tests since 2017, so I think this is a pretty easy no.

bought Ṁ50 of YES

@Raze I agree, probably not in Ukraine. But Russia doing an underground "routine readiness test" as part of saber rattling in response to major setbacks in Ukraine wouldn't surprise me one bit.