This question will resolve as YES if any nuclear weapon is detonated anywhere in the world after October 29, 2022 and before January 1, 2024. Otherwise NO.
A test detonation would result in the question resolving as YES.
A detonation would resolve YES regardless of whether it is deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised
Detonation means nuclear explosion. If a nuclear weapon were launched/dropped/etc but the nuclear weapon did not detonate (due to malfunction, interception, etc), that would not count as detonation. If a conventional explosion occurs but no nuclear explosion, that does not count.
This is an extension of @jack's market of 2022 detonation:
See https://manifold.markets/post/nuclear-risk-forecasting for a dashboard of other nuclear risk questions along with commentary and analysis.
Oct 29, 6:17pm: Will a nuclear weapon be detonated by Dec 31, 2023? → Will a nuclear weapon be detonated by the end of 2023?
https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-russia-conduct-a-nuclear-weapo arbitrage hasn't converged between these two and this market
I don't see any other country besides North Korea detonating a nuke in the foreseeable future.
Russia detonating a nuke in Ukraine is dubious, it will incur massive backlash and probably will mean the end of the war as the entire globe will likely condemn them.
On top of that North Korea hasn't conducted any nuclear tests since 2017, so I think this is a pretty easy no.
@Raze I agree, probably not in Ukraine. But Russia doing an underground "routine readiness test" as part of saber rattling in response to major setbacks in Ukraine wouldn't surprise me one bit.
