Will the number of truck drivers in the US more than halve before 2029?
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1kṀ3277
2029
14%
chance

https://www.bls.gov/oes/current/oes533032.htm
Currently, there are about two million truck drivers employed in the US. However, self-driving trucks could automate a significant fraction of this sector. Will this happen before January 2029?
(Will resolve based on BLS or similar source. May resolve up to six months later in case there are no reliable sources and its not already clear.)

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1y

Added this market here because I thought it could be classified as third party validated. https://manifold.markets/group/third-party-validated-predictive-ma-6bab86c0b8b0/questions

Third Party Validated, Predictive Markets: AI
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  1. From a shallow investigation, seems like technical challenges remain like navigating tight loading areas

  2. There seem to be regulatory burdens

  3. There is a limit to how many autonomous trucks can be produced per year, seems unlikely you can scale this to millions per year

1y

Related: https://manifold.markets/ahalekelly/will-more-than-200000-us-truck-driv

Will more than 200,000 US truck drivers lose their jobs by 2026?
11% chance. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which publishes its statistics every May, there were 1,984,180 Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers in May 2022, over 1% of the US labor force. The number of truck drivers has been growing steadily since 2020, and the BLS predicts it to gro…

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