Will the Supreme Court leaker's identity be known by 2030?

Question

This markets resolves YES if the identity of the person who leaked the draft Dobbs opinion is known.

According to the recent statement from the court:

Another statute, 18 U.S.C. § 1001 [False Official Statements], has become important to the investigation since all personnel who had access to the draft opinion signed sworn affidavits affirming they did not disclose the draft opinion nor know anything about who did. If the investigators determine any of these personnel lied, they could be subject to prosecution under 18 U.S.C. § 1001.

18 U.S.C. § 1001 has a statute of limitations of five years, so if the leaker is waiting to reveal themselves until that runs, we may know who it was by 2027 or 2028.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 32% chance (24 traders, as of Jan 26, 2026).