Date first peer reviewed manuscript in Cell, Nature, or Science concludes SARS2 lab origin more likely than not (Set)

Question

Set version of question here (with more options): https://manifold.markets/zcoli/date-first-peer-reviewed-manuscript

This version was created in order to be able to resolve options prior to 2029.

The reference date is the date a peer reviewed manuscript first appears online at the journal website or is otherwise published by any of these three journals after being accepted for publication. Any peer reviewed manuscript type is acceptable. If lab leak likelihood is generally accepted based on data and analysis elsewhere, inevitably this will be cited approvingly in a peer reviewed manuscript in one of these journals shortly thereafter.

Any statement equivalent to finding over 50% likelihood for SARS-CoV-2 originating in a laboratory that reflects author(s) conclusions and is published following peer review qualifies.

In the vanishingly unlikely event anyone asks, I will refuse to comment on potentially qualifying manuscripts in submission.

While this is the most objective question I could come up with to address this point, I will not participate in the market.

Update 2025-11-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will close on January 1, 2026 and will be reopened after resolving the first question.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Never or after 1/1/2030, followed by 1/1/2028-12/31/2028 and 1/1/2029-12/31/2029 are most likely. See the market for live updates (25 traders, as of Aug 4, 2026).