Will Trump’s favorability increase after sentencing?

Question

After Trump is sentenced in the porn star hush money trial will his favorability increase?

Favorability will be measured by reputable polls including YouGov and analysis including 538. Feel free to suggest additional high quality sources.

An increase is considered any nonzero rise in average favorability after the sentencing is announced, even if within polling error. Polls conducted closest to the announcement will be favored. Comparisons will be made between polls from the same polling agency before and after. The resolution will be based on a majority of high quality polls and analysis. Opinion articles will not be considered.

Resolves No if the Yes condition is not met.

There is no NA condition.

Resolves after sufficient polling data is available, likely in the week after sentencing. Please comment with any polls you want to be considered at that time.

Manifold Markets · Accepted Answer

No — resolved on Jan 1, 2025 by Manifold Markets prediction market.