When will U.S. ground forces first enter Iranian territory? (April 2026)

Question

This market will resolve to YES for the bucket corresponding to the Washington, D.C. (Eastern Time) date that conventional or special operations ground forces of the United States first physically enter the sovereign land territory of Iran. All other options will resolve to NO.

If no such confirmation occurs by April 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to Not in April 2026.

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Sovereign Land Territory: Includes the Iranian mainland and internationally recognized Iranian islands (e.g., Kharg Island, Abu Musa, Sirri Island), as well as physically boarding and occupying Iranian-flagged offshore oil platforms within Iranian territorial waters.

Ground Forces: Implies intentional "boots on the ground" deployments for the purpose of combat, raiding, sabotage, or occupation. This includes both conventional infantry/armor units (e.g., Marines, Army Airborne) and special operations forces (e.g., Navy SEALs, Delta Force, Army Rangers).

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Resolution will be based on official government or military announcements from the United States (e.g., Department of Defense press releases, Presidential addresses), or strong, corroborated consensus reporting from top-tier, credible international news organizations (e.g., AP, Reuters, BBC, NYT, WSJ) confirming the specific date the physical incursion began.

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Exclusions (NOT a YES):

Downed Pilots & Recovery: Pilots ejecting over Iranian territory, or temporary personnel recovery/Combat Search and Rescue (CSAR) missions strictly deployed to rescue downed aircrew.

Air/Naval Operations: Missiles, drones, or airstrikes traversing Iranian airspace.

Naval Personnel: Sailors or Marines strictly remaining aboard vessels within Iranian territorial waters, provided they do not physically disembark onto Iranian land or occupied platforms.

Covert Intelligence: Intelligence operations (e.g., CIA Special Activities Center assets) that do not involve active, acknowledged military ground force combat deployments, unless officially declassified and confirmed by the U.S. Government as military ground operations within the April 2026 timeframe.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Not in April 2026, followed by April 22 - 30 and April 15 - 21 are most likely. See the market for live updates (17 traders, as of Apr 15, 2026).