At any point before start of 2050, will a country named Yakutia or Sakha (or something similar) be a member of the UN?

Question

Something like "Republic of Sakha", "Sakha federation", "Yakut republic" etc. would also count.

The purpose of this market is to predict if the Sakha republic would secede from Russia.

If a country with a similar name is member of the UN that has no relation whatsoever to the Sakha republic that is currently part of Russia, this is not enough to trigger a YES resolution. This question refers to some kind of descendant of the current Sakha republic.

Check out my similar markets about Siberia in general, as well as Chechnya

(https://manifold.markets/embed/wadimiusz/at-any-point-before-start-of-2050-w-577334d56c4e):

(https://manifold.markets/embed/market/at-any-point-before-the-start-of-20)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 17% chance (7 traders, as of Feb 15, 2026).