Which approach(es) will lead to a viable theory of quantum gravity?

Question

Anyone can add answers.

Resolves when there is widespread consensus that a viable theory of quantum gravity has been found, or when this is proven impossible.

By trading in this market, you agree to let me be the judge for subjective matters associated with this market (e.g., what counts as "widespread consensus"). When in doubt, ask before trading.

Update 2025-08-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - A viable theory must describe our universe. It will not be resolved to YES simply for being mathematically consistent.

Answers with meanings the creator deems too ambiguous may be resolved to N/A.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Gravitational path integral of metric field, followed by Gravitational path integral of gauge variables (e.g., spinfoam models) and Causal set are most likely. See the market for live updates (2 traders, as of Aug 6, 2025).