Will Hans Niemann be a top 10 chess player before 2030?

Question

This market resolves YES if Hans Moke Niemann is a top 10 chess player according to FIDE rankings at any point before 2030-01-01 0001UTC. The ratings used will be the standard top 100 open list as worked out with FIDE's database. There is a webpage that collates the top 100 open list here.

In the event of Niemann recieving a FIDE ban lasting longer than 1 year and 1 day for any reason, this market will resolve NO.

In the event of a tie in the rankings, Niemann will be considered to occupy the higher of the tied positions for the purpose of this market.

In the event that FIDE is dissolved or its status as the authoritative global ranking body for chess is significantly challenged, an alternative organization with a similar ranking system will be used for market resolution. This alternative organization must be widely recognized and accepted by a majority of active, professional chess players worldwide. If no such ranking organisation exists, this market will resolve as N/A.

The ranking must be legitimate and not as a result of any obvious error with the database. If the database it not public, a reliable public source will be used.

If at the time of resolution FIDE rankings are still updated monthly, this market will wait until 2030-01-08 for the database update to go live.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Roughly even odds — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 45% chance (60 traders, as of Jul 25, 2026).