Will John Wentworth's Gears of Aging series hold up in 2033?

Question

Gears of Aging

To me, the main updates from gears of aging was:

There might be 1 or a small number of factors that can be intervened on to cure aging.

Curing these factors will not just stop people from aging further but also reverse them to good young health.

Before reading Gears of Aging, I had the "old car model of aging", where I thought:

Aging happens because every part of your body gradually accumulates damage and you've only evolved to be able to deal with so much damage.

Recovering to good health requires medically undoing each bit of damage that has been done.

If both of the updates for gears of aging seem reasonable in 2033, this market resolves YES. If one of the updates holds up but the other doesn't, this market resolves PROB 50%. If both of updates fail then the market resolves NO. If I am uncertain about some of the points then I reserve the right to resolve PROB between them. If I have radical uncertainty then I may resolve N/A.

I will not be betting in this market.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 34% chance (17 traders, as of Apr 13, 2026).