To me, the main updates from gears of aging was:

Before reading Gears of Aging, I had the "old car model of aging", where I thought:

If both of the updates for gears of aging seem reasonable in 2033, this market resolves YES. If one of the updates holds up but the other doesn't, this market resolves PROB 50%. If both of updates fail then the market resolves NO. If I am uncertain about some of the points then I reserve the right to resolve PROB between them. If I have radical uncertainty then I may resolve N/A.