Will I find AI to negatively impact my job opportunities as a coder by 2032?

Question

I work as a software engineer. A lot of my specialization is in being able to write good code, but AI has been getting better and better at that lately. I hope I maybe have a backup as working on AI because logically speaking it seems like AI research would be the "last job to get automated", but I also know a lot of non-AI coding, e.g. backend development, frontend development, programming language theory, data science, etc., and these skills might get obsoleted by AI. I'm not really good at ops work so I'm not counting that.

Resolution criterion: If I subjectively feel that my opportunities for coding jobs have become worse due to AI, for at least 6 months duration starting before 2032, this market resolves YES. Otherwise it resolves NO. If I have great opportunities within AI, this market may still resolve YES, as I will treat AI as a separate field from coding. (Unless we're speaking like, GOFAI, scaffolding, etc..) AI does not need to be as skilled as a programmer; if it is cheaper or makes bad coders as productive as me, then it might still be negatively affecting my career.

I will not be betting in this market.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Very likely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 82% chance (82 traders, as of Aug 3, 2026).