How many of these jobs will have a 15% or more drop in employment plausibly attributable to AI by 2031?

Question

Between DALL-E, GPT, AlphaStar, AlphaFold, Waymo, and others, AI technology seems to have accelerated a lot this past decade. This leads to some people wondering if AI will start replacing human jobs.

Specifically, the market resolves to the count of how many of the following types have less than 85% of the expected employment by 2031:

Art and design workers

Healthcare diagnosing or treating practitioners

Lawyers

Software developers

Materials engineers

Postsecondary teachers

Preschool, elementary, middle, secondary, and special education teachers

Farming, fishing, and forestry occupations

Motor vehicle operators

Retail sales workers

Chief executives

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (archived here) has projections for how much employment they expect in various types of jobs by 2031, and they will likely also continue to keep track of those jobs types at the time. This question resolves to PROB of the fraction of the above jobs that fail to reach at least 85% of the projected employment.

An exception is made if there is a non-AI related factor that causes a widespread long-term change in the economic trajectories, e.g. a war. In that case I will attempt to adjust for this factor by changing the resolution criterion, e.g. by counting from the projected employment after the event happened.

An exception is made for jobs that fail to reach their employment due to some clearly identifiable non-software-related shock or change in trends, such as a job-specific crisis or change (e.g. if motor vehicles get banned for safety or pollution reasons). Such jobs will be removed from the list before computing the fraction.

An exception is made if the list of job types changes, e.g. jobs are split, renamed, or deleted. If the job types change due to AI fundamentally changing the nature of the job, then I will likely count that job as having a drop in employment, unless doing so would be silly (e.g. the nature of the job hasn't changed very much, more people are working in the job than before). If the job types change for other reasons, I will try to find a comparable job type in the new list to make comparable resolutions. If all else fails, I will likely remove the job from the list as above.

I'm not very sure that my chosen list of jobs is a good selection, so I reserve the right to:

add fundamentally new jobs to the list for the next month if something good is suggested in the comments

mildly change the types of jobs or statistics source for the next three months if something good is suggested in the comments

perform other unknown changes until a year after this market has opened, if something important comes up

I will not bet in this market.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 34% chance (8 traders, as of May 16, 2023).