Will Elon Musk ever walk on Mars?

Question

See: @/strutheo/will-elon-musk-be-the-first-person

See: @/strutheo/will-elon-musk-ever-walk-on-the-moo

See: @/strutheo/will-elon-musk-be-alive-on-the-day

Manifold Markets · Answer

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 12% chance (152 traders, as of Jul 22, 2026).