Will the United States re-institute the draft by 2030? 🪖🇺🇸

Question

Active conscription ended in the United States in 1973. Will conflict with China or Russia push American policy makers towards starting up the draft?

Same criteria as this market:

(https://manifold.markets/embed/soweliSon/which-countries-in-europe-will-rees)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 15% chance (16 traders, as of Mar 10, 2026).