Will Iranian-backed sleeper cell activity result in US casualties before 2029?

Question

Will activities by Iranian-backed sleeper cells result in 10+ casualties on US soil before January 1, 2029?

Sleeper cell activity refers to covert operations by operatives who remain dormant until activated to carry out attacks.

Confirmation must come from US law enforcement agencies or reputable news organizations.

I’ll refrain from betting in this market.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 23% chance (24 traders, as of May 1, 2026).