Will Iran exclusively use a proxy in its response to Israel?

Question

Will Iran exclusively use a proxy in its response to the attack on its embassy in Syria?

A "proxy" here is defined as a non-state actor (e.g. Hezbollah, Hamas, PIJ) supported by a third party (Iran).

A "response" encompasses any of the military operations as defined by this Wikipedia page (strike, engagement, battle, campaign, theater).

"Exclusively" means that any military operations must not conducted by a branch of the Iranian Armed Forces. Rather, they are conducted by a proxy as defined above.

If the Iranian Armed Forces are involved in the planning of a military operation but are not directly involved in its execution (e.g. the IRGC coordinates intelligence with Hezbollah but does not directly send its own troops or strike with its own weapons), this resolves as YES

If the Iranian Armed Forces are involved in the execution of an attack (e.g. the IRGC sends its own troops and/or strikes with its own weapons), this resolves as NO.

If the Iranian Armed Forces publicly deny being involved in the execution of an attack (as defined by the above bullet point) but there is overwhelming evidence/intelligence that they were directly involved in its execution, this market resolves as NO.

There are several other markets regarding a potential kinetic response, but they all appear to have the caveat of Iran itself conducting an attack.

[markets]

Manifold Markets · Accepted Answer

No — resolved on Apr 13, 2024 by Manifold Markets prediction market.