Will a country operate a sixth-generation fighter by EOY 2035?

Question

Resolves YES if mil-industry/political media reports the entracne of a sixth-generation fighter into full service.

Projects to watch:

GCAP (by 2035)

FCAS (by 2040)

F/A-XX (2030s)

NGAD (2030s)

CAC (2035)

PAK DP (2030s)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Very likely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 84% chance (7 traders, as of Apr 4, 2026).