Italy: Will Parliament curb prosecutors' judicial police powers by EOY 2029? (unconditional)

Question

BACKGROUND

In October 2025, the Italian Parliament approved a constitutional reform that separates the careers of judges and prosecutors, splits the existing Supreme Council of the Judiciary (CSM) into two separate councils, introduces sortition (lottery) instead of election for council members, and creates a new High Disciplinary Court. The full text was published in the Gazzetta Ufficiale n. 253 on October 30, 2025:

https://www.gazzettaufficiale.it/eli/id/2025/10/30/25A05968/sg

Because the reform was approved with less than a two-thirds majority, it is subject to a confirmatory referendum on March 22-23, 2026 (no quorum required). A prediction market on whether YES will prevail in that referendum is here:

https://manifold.markets/AldoRaine/will-the-yes-vote-prevail-in-the-it

Currently, Italian prosecutors (pubblici ministeri) direct the judicial police (polizia giudiziaria) during criminal investigations, as guaranteed by Article 109 of the Constitution ("L'autorita' giudiziaria dispone direttamente della polizia giudiziaria"). In January 2026, Deputy Prime Minister Antonio Tajani publicly stated that judicial police control should be transferred away from prosecutors to the administrative structures of the respective ministries. Critics of the career separation reform fear it is the first step toward subordinating prosecutors to the executive, and transferring judicial police control would be the next step.

Note: a full transfer of judicial police control would likely require amending Article 109 of the Constitution, which is not part of the current reform. However, partial erosion could occur through ordinary legislation modifying the Code of Criminal Procedure.

QUESTION

By December 31, 2029, will the Italian Parliament have published in the Gazzetta Ufficiale a law (constitutional or ordinary) that materially weakens prosecutors' power to directly direct the judicial police during criminal investigations?

RESOLUTION CRITERIA

Resolves YES if a law published in the Gazzetta Ufficiale by December 31, 2029 does any of the following:

(a) Amends Article 109 of the Constitution to remove or weaken the principle that the judicial authority "directly disposes of" the judicial police.

(b) Modifies the Code of Criminal Procedure (in particular Articles 327, 370, or 371) or other legislation in a way that transfers primary operational direction of judicial police during investigations from prosecutors to police hierarchies, the Ministry of the Interior, or the Ministry of Justice.

(c) Creates a new institutional framework in which prosecutors must request (rather than direct) judicial police assistance for investigative acts.

Resolves NO if no such law has been published by that date, or if changes are limited to administrative reorganization that does not alter the fundamental legal relationship between prosecutors and judicial police.

IMPORTANT: Unlike most other markets in this series, this market is NOT conditional on the constitutional reform entering into force. It resolves YES or NO regardless of the outcome of the March 2026 referendum. This is because the question tests a broader political trajectory that could materialize independently of the career separation reform.

NOTE

This market was created with the assistance of Claude (Anthropic) as part of a structured analysis of the reform's implications and uncertainties.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 32% chance (3 traders, as of Mar 18, 2026).