Italy judicial reform: Will turnout at the March 2026 referendum exceed 50%?

Question

BACKGROUND

In October 2025, the Italian Parliament approved a constitutional reform that separates the careers of judges and prosecutors, splits the existing Supreme Council of the Judiciary (CSM) into two separate councils, introduces sortition (lottery) instead of election for council members, and creates a new High Disciplinary Court. The full text was published in the Gazzetta Ufficiale n. 253 on October 30, 2025:

https://www.gazzettaufficiale.it/eli/id/2025/10/30/25A05968/sg

The reform is subject to a confirmatory referendum on March 22-23, 2026. No quorum is required. A prediction market on whether YES will prevail is here:

https://manifold.markets/AldoRaine/will-the-yes-vote-prevail-in-the-it

Turnout at Italian confirmatory referendums has varied widely: 34.1% in 2001 (Title V reform), 52.5% in 2006 (devolution), 65.5% in 2016 (Renzi reform). Turnout is an indicator of how the referendum is perceived: a high-turnout referendum suggests the vote is framed as a major political confrontation; a low-turnout one suggests limited public engagement.

QUESTION

Will voter turnout at the March 22-23, 2026 constitutional referendum exceed 50% of eligible voters?

RESOLUTION CRITERIA

Resolves YES if the official turnout figure published by the Italian Ministry of the Interior (Ministero dell'Interno) exceeds 50.0%.

Resolves NO if the official turnout figure is 50.0% or below.

This market resolves regardless of the outcome of the referendum (YES or NO vote).

NOTE

This market was created with the assistance of Claude (Anthropic) as part of a structured analysis of the reform's implications and uncertainties.

Manifold Markets · Accepted Answer

Yes — resolved on Mar 25, 2026 by Manifold Markets prediction market.