In October 2025, the Italian Parliament approved a constitutional reform that separates the careers of judges and prosecutors, splits the existing Supreme Council of the Judiciary (CSM) into two separate councils, introduces sortition (lottery) instead of election for council members, and creates a new High Disciplinary Court. The full text was published in the Gazzetta Ufficiale n. 253 on October 30, 2025:

https://www.gazzettaufficiale.it/eli/id/2025/10/30/25A05968/sg

Because the reform was approved with less than a two-thirds majority, it is subject to a confirmatory referendum (no quorum required). A prediction market on whether YES will prevail in that referendum is here:

https://manifold.markets/AldoRaine/will-the-yes-vote-prevail-in-the-it

The current single CSM has 33 members and governs all approximately 9,000 Italian magistrates. The reform splits it into two councils. The new CSM for prosecutors (CSM requirente) will govern roughly 3,000-3,500 prosecutors. The Constitution does not specify how many members each new council will have, delegating this to implementing legislation. A smaller council is easier to influence and less resilient to external pressure. This is especially sensitive for the prosecutors' council, since prosecutors are the ones who investigate politicians and powerful figures.

Will the new CSM requirente (prosecutors' council), as defined by implementing legislation, have at least 20 total members (including ex officio members)?

Resolves YES if the implementing law published in the Gazzetta Ufficiale sets the total membership of the CSM requirente at 20 or more (counting all categories: ex officio, sortition from magistrates, sortition from parliamentary list).

Resolves NO if the implementing law sets it below 20, or if no implementing law addressing the composition of the CSM requirente has been published by December 31, 2028.

Resolves N/A if the constitutional reform does not enter into force.

This market was created with the assistance of Claude (Anthropic) as part of a structured analysis of the reform's implications and uncertainties.