In October 2025, the Italian Parliament approved a constitutional reform that separates the careers of judges and prosecutors, splits the existing Supreme Council of the Judiciary (CSM) into two separate councils, introduces sortition (lottery) instead of election for council members, and creates a new High Disciplinary Court. The full text was published in the Gazzetta Ufficiale n. 253 on October 30, 2025:

https://www.gazzettaufficiale.it/eli/id/2025/10/30/25A05968/sg

Because the reform was approved with less than a two-thirds majority, it is subject to a confirmatory referendum (no quorum required). A prediction market on whether YES will prevail in that referendum is here:

https://manifold.markets/AldoRaine/will-the-yes-vote-prevail-in-the-it

The constitutional reform delegates most operational details to implementing legislation. A crucial question is whether this legislation will take the form of a detailed "legge ordinaria" (ordinary law debated and voted article-by-article by Parliament) or a "legge delega" (a delegation law that sets broad principles and authorizes the Government to write the detailed rules via "decreti legislativi"). If the Government receives a delegation, the executive -- not Parliament -- writes the actual rules, with reduced parliamentary oversight. This matters because many critical parameters of the reform (size of the new CSMs, length of parliamentary lists, disciplinary court procedures) would then be set by Government decree.

Will the first piece of implementing legislation for the constitutional reform, published in the Gazzetta Ufficiale, be a legge delega?

A "legge delega" is defined functionally as a law that delegates the Government to adopt one or more decreti legislativi on matters implementing the constitutional reform, setting principles and criteria (principi e criteri direttivi), a defined scope, and a deadline for the Government to exercise the delegation. This is the standard form of delegation under Article 76 of the Italian Constitution, regardless of whether the law explicitly cites that article.

Resolves YES if the first law published in the Gazzetta Ufficiale that explicitly implements any provision of the constitutional reform meets this definition.

Resolves NO if the first such law is a legge ordinaria that directly sets the rules without delegating to Government decrees, or if no implementing law has been published by December 31, 2028.

Resolves N/A if the constitutional reform does not enter into force.

This market was created with the assistance of Claude (Anthropic) as part of a structured analysis of the reform's implications and uncertainties.