In October 2025, the Italian Parliament approved a constitutional reform that separates the careers of judges and prosecutors, splits the existing Supreme Council of the Judiciary (CSM) into two separate councils, introduces sortition (lottery) instead of election for council members, and creates a new High Disciplinary Court. The full text was published in the Gazzetta Ufficiale n. 253 on October 30, 2025:

https://www.gazzettaufficiale.it/eli/id/2025/10/30/25A05968/sg

Because the reform was approved with less than a two-thirds majority, it is subject to a confirmatory referendum (no quorum required). A prediction market on whether YES will prevail in that referendum is here:

https://manifold.markets/AldoRaine/will-the-yes-vote-prevail-in-the-it

The European Commission publishes an annual Rule of Law Report for each EU member state, which includes country-specific recommendations on issues affecting judicial independence, anti-corruption, media freedom, and institutional checks and balances. The Commission has previously issued critical recommendations regarding judicial reforms in Poland, Hungary, and other member states. Whether the Commission comments on Italy's reform is an indicator of how the reform is perceived by an external, relatively impartial institutional observer.

Will the European Commission's 2027 Rule of Law Report (expected around July 2027) contain at least one recommendation to Italy that clearly relates to the constitutional reform on judicial career separation, the restructured CSMs, the sortition mechanism, or the High Disciplinary Court?

Resolves YES if the 2027 Rule of Law Report's chapter on Italy contains at least one recommendation that clearly concerns the constitutional reform or its implementing legislation. The recommendation need not name the reform explicitly; it is sufficient if it clearly addresses one or more of its specific provisions (e.g., career separation, CSM composition, sortition for selecting council members, the disciplinary system for magistrates). General recommendations about judicial efficiency or anti-corruption that do not relate to the structural changes introduced by the reform do not count.

Resolves NO if the Italy chapter contains no such recommendation, or if the 2027 Rule of Law Report has not been published by December 31, 2027.

Resolves N/A if the constitutional reform does not enter into force.

This market was created with the assistance of Claude (Anthropic) as part of a structured analysis of the reform's implications and uncertainties.