In October 2025, the Italian Parliament approved a constitutional reform that separates the careers of judges and prosecutors, splits the existing Supreme Council of the Judiciary (CSM) into two separate councils, introduces sortition (lottery) instead of election for council members, and creates a new High Disciplinary Court (Alta Corte disciplinare). The full text was published in the Gazzetta Ufficiale n. 253 on October 30, 2025:

https://www.gazzettaufficiale.it/eli/id/2025/10/30/25A05968/sg

Because the reform was approved with less than a two-thirds majority, it is subject to a confirmatory referendum (no quorum required). A prediction market on whether YES will prevail in that referendum is here:

https://manifold.markets/AldoRaine/will-the-yes-vote-prevail-in-the-it

The Alta Corte disciplinare has 15 members: 6 judges, 3 prosecutors, and 6 lay members. Actual cases will be decided by smaller panels (collegi), whose composition is delegated to implementing legislation. The Constitution only requires that "judges or prosecutors are represented in the panel" -- meaning the category of the accused magistrate must be present, but there is no requirement for the other category to be present.

This creates two possible models: (a) mixed panels where both judges and prosecutors sit together for all first-instance cases, making the Alta Corte a rare institutional bridge between the two separated careers; or (b) category-specific panels where cases against judges are decided mainly by judges and cases against prosecutors mainly by prosecutors. This market focuses on first-instance panels only; the composition of internal appeal panels is likely to be constrained by the small number of available members and the constitutional requirement that appeal judges not have participated in the first-instance decision.

Will the implementing legislation require that first-instance disciplinary panels (collegi) of the Alta Corte always include at least one magistrate from each career (both a giudicante and a requirente), regardless of the career of the accused magistrate?

Resolves YES if the implementing law published in the Gazzetta Ufficiale requires that every first-instance disciplinary panel of the Alta Corte includes at least one magistrato giudicante AND at least one magistrato requirente, regardless of which category the accused belongs to.

Resolves NO if the implementing law allows first-instance panels composed entirely of magistrates from one career (plus lay members), or if the law does not address panel composition in sufficient detail to determine this, or if no implementing law addressing this matter has been published by December 31, 2028.

Resolves N/A if the constitutional reform does not enter into force.

This market was created with the assistance of Claude (Anthropic) as part of a structured analysis of the reform's implications and uncertainties.