In October 2025, the Italian Parliament approved a constitutional reform that separates the careers of judges and prosecutors, splits the existing Supreme Council of the Judiciary (CSM) into two separate councils, introduces sortition (lottery) instead of election for council members, and creates a new High Disciplinary Court. The full text was published in the Gazzetta Ufficiale n. 253 on October 30, 2025:

https://www.gazzettaufficiale.it/eli/id/2025/10/30/25A05968/sg

Because the reform was approved with less than a two-thirds majority, it is subject to a confirmatory referendum (no quorum required). A prediction market on whether YES will prevail in that referendum is here:

https://manifold.markets/AldoRaine/will-the-yes-vote-prevail-in-the-it

The constitutional reform itself is a framework: it establishes principles but delegates most operational details to ordinary implementing legislation, which must be passed within one year of the reform's entry into force (though this deadline is not enforceable). Until implementing laws are passed, the current rules remain in effect (Article 8 of the reform).

Will the Italian Parliament publish in the Gazzetta Ufficiale at least one law explicitly implementing the constitutional reform on judicial career separation, by December 31, 2027?

Resolves YES if, by December 31, 2027, at least one law (legge ordinaria or legge delega) has been published in the Gazzetta Ufficiale that explicitly references the constitutional reform and implements any of its provisions (new CSM composition, career separation rules, High Disciplinary Court rules, or related matters).

Resolves NO if no such law has been published by that date.

Resolves N/A if the constitutional reform does not enter into force (e.g., because the referendum results in a NO vote, or the referendum is not held for any reason).

This market was created with the assistance of Claude (Anthropic) as part of a structured analysis of the reform's implications and uncertainties.