Will 100,000 people pledge to attend Eliezer's Don't Build It march before 2027?

Question

See https://ifanyonebuildsit.com/march

It says "If 100,000 other people pledge to march, I commit to attend." Why? Is the march actually going to happen?

It's most useful to march if a critical mass of people would show up. So we're planning the march as a "conditional commitment." If we reach 100,000 people, we will schedule the march. If not, we won't (and will meanwhile put that energy to other strategies).

We might reach critical mass soon. It might take months or years, as more people learn about the risks of AI.

What if I don't want to commit to marching in DC yet?

That's okay! You can sign up for updates. We'll let you know when our primary march reaches 100,000 people pledged. We may also end up hosting smaller marches in other cities as we study the political landscape.

This market should resolve YES if the primary march reaches 100,000 people pledged before 2027.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 13% chance (14 traders, as of Sep 27, 2026).