See the comments for clarifications before betting

This is honestly a toss-up, they're big into "letting me make my own decisions," so I guess I could let Manifold decide and just give them that answer and they'd let me do it, but if they found out that I was using Team Hanson techniques my dad might crash out (our family is Team Cowen all the way when it comes to GMU economists)

This market resolves to a 1-100 FR coinflip if 

 market resolves NO before this market resolves.

If ASI comes before this market is resolved 

 AGI still doesn't exist, resolves to Kalshi's current market share of notional volume.