Will there be a 2nd assassination attempt on Donald Trump?

Question

Resolution Criteria

Definition:

A "2nd assassination attempt" is defined as any act or series of acts carried out with the intent to cause the death of Donald Trump after the first documented assassination attempt.

Criteria:

Confirmed Assassination Attempt:

The attempt must be publicly recognized and confirmed by at least two credible news sources (e.g., major national newspapers, international news agencies, or official government statements).

The event must be identified explicitly as an assassination attempt by law enforcement or government authorities.

Target:

Donald Trump must be the explicit target of the assassination attempt.

The attempt must occur while Donald Trump is alive and can be confirmed to be directed at him personally.

Time Frame:

The resolution will consider any events that occur from the date this market opens until the market closing date - Feb 28th 2025.

Documentation:

Evidence of the assassination attempt must be documented through credible sources, including but not limited to police reports, official statements, or court documents.

Rumors, unverified reports, or incidents lacking substantial evidence will not be considered sufficient for resolution.

Nature of the Attempt:

The attempt must involve an act of violence or the use of a weapon (e.g., firearms, explosives, poisoning) with the intent to kill.

Non-violent threats, hoaxes, or unsuccessful plots that are intercepted before any actionable steps are taken will not be considered.

Multiple Incidents:

If multiple events occur, each will be evaluated independently. For the purposes of this market, the 2nd confirmed attempt will resolve this question.

Exclusions:

Incidents that are not clearly targeted at Donald Trump personally (e.g., general threats to government officials, random acts of violence with no specific target).

Incidents that are considered accidental or unintentional.

False alarms, mistaken identity, or events that are later debunked.

Final Resolution:

The market will be resolved based on the first confirmed 2nd assassination attempt that meets all the above criteria. If no such attempt is confirmed by the market closing date, the market will resolve as "No."

Sources:

Accepted credible sources include major national newspapers (e.g., The New York Times, The Washington Post), international news agencies (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press), and official government statements.

Manifold Markets · Accepted Answer

Yes — resolved on Sep 16, 2024 by Manifold Markets prediction market.