Republicans win 2028 US Presidential Election?

Question

Resolution Criteria: The question will resolve to "Yes" if the Republican Party's candidate is officially declared the winner of the 2028 U.S. Presidential Election by the U.S. Electoral College and certified by Congress, as verified by the U.S. Federal Election Commission (FEC) or another authorized government body. If the Republican candidate is not declared the winner, it will resolve to "No."

Manifold Markets · Answer

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 39% chance (24 traders, as of Oct 2, 2026).