Will Jesus Christ return in 2026?

Question

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM PT, there is an event widely and credibly recognized as the arrival or return of Jesus Christ — whether as the Second Coming (in Christian eschatology), the First Coming (in the view of certain religions or groups), or a new messianic appearance.

Such recognition must be confirmed by a consensus of credible global news outlets and at least one major world government or international authority. The event must involve a public, global acknowledgment that the individual is Jesus Christ or a direct fulfillment of the prophetic messianic role as traditionally understood in Abrahamic religions.

If no such confirmation exists by the stated time, the market will resolve to “No.”

Manifold Markets · Answer

Almost certainly not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 1% chance (44 traders, as of Feb 12, 2026).