DOGE cuts $1T federal deficit by FY 2026?

Question

Resolution Criteria: DOGE cuts $1T federal deficit by FY 2026

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by the end of Fiscal Year 2026 (September 30, 2026), the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) is credited with directly reducing the U.S. federal deficit by at least $1 trillion through cost-cutting measures, policy reforms, or efficiency initiatives.

The reduction must be explicitly attributed to DOGE in official government reports (e.g., Congressional Budget Office, U.S. Treasury, or White House budget statements) or a consensus of credible financial media sources.

If no such attribution is made by September 30, 2026, at 23:59 PT, this market will resolve to “No”.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Almost certainly not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 3% chance (38 traders, as of Jul 15, 2026).