Who will be the 2026 ATP Tour Year End #1 Tennis Player?

Question

Resolution criteria

The ATP year-end No. 1 is determined as the player who ends the year as world No. 1 in the ATP rankings. Players start the year with zero points and accumulate points from tournament to tournament based on their performances, with the player who ends the season with the most points crowned as the year-end No. 1. Resolution will be based on the official ATP Rankings published at https://www.atptour.com/en/rankings/singles after the final ATP Tour event of 2026.

Background

Carlos Alcaraz clinched the 2025 year-end No. 1 ranking after defeating Lorenzo Musetti at the ATP Finals. The 2026 season will feature a competitive field with Alcaraz, Jannik Sinner, and Alexander Zverev as the top contenders. Ranking points are awarded according to the stage of tournament reached and the prestige of the tournament, with the four Grand Slam tournaments awarding the most points.

Considerations

Alcaraz and Sinner split the majors and almost all major finals. Will 2026 be another battle between the two best players in the world? Will anyone be able to challenge them?

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Jannik Sinner, followed by Carlos Alcaraz and Alex de Minaur are most likely. See the market for live updates (12 traders, as of May 19, 2026).