Will Kamala Harris’ “electionbettingodds” exceed 68.5% (Trump's Peak) before November 2024?

Question

If at any moment before November 1st, the odds for Kamala Harris to win the 2024 US Presidential Election goes above 68.5% on the “last day” chart from election betting odds (points plotted about every 30mins), then this market resolves YES.

By November 1st, if there are no 30-minute intervals (a single point plotted on the “last day” chart) showing Harris’ odds of winning higher than 68.5%, then this will resolve NO.

Will not resolve from a determined glitch spike or fresh points that eventually move back down to 68.5 or lower (will wait until the point is static or the following 30min interval is plotted). I will not trade in this market.

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Manifold Markets · Accepted Answer

No — resolved on Nov 2, 2024 by Manifold Markets prediction market.