Arctic Sea Ice Volume for January 2024 = 16,300 km^3

Question

Will the monthly Arctic Sea Ice Volume for January 2024, as reported from the PIOMAS reanalysis, be greater than or equal to 16,300 km^3?

Criteria:

The market will resolve YES if the number reported from PIOMAS (presently at http://psc.apl.uw.edu/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/data/) for the "Monthly Ice Volume" is greater than or equal to 16,300 km^3. I will use the csv data linked in the above URL. Please note the data is in units of 10^3 km^3, so a value of 16.300 in the .csv file equals 16,300 km^3; e.g., a value of >= 16.300 in the csv file for January 2024 will resolve YES; a value < 16.300 will resolve NO).

Motivation:

Quote from the PIOMAS [1] web page: "Sea ice volume is an important climate indicator. It depends on both ice thickness and extent and therefore more directly tied to climate forcing than extent alone."

Resolution Timeframe:

This market will close on February 1. I will try to resolve the market within a day of the data for January 2024 becoming available. To keep the market somewhat timely, I will give up to (roughly) three weeks for the data to be published; specifically, if the data for the month of January 2024 is not available for download by February 21, 2024 12:00 PM EST, I will resolve this market to N/A then.

Comments:

Keep in mind that PIOMAS is a reanalysis, so this market's question is ultimately predicting the model's estimate for arctic ice volume (see the PIOMAS "Purpose" section for more information).

A few references for general knowledge:

[1] PIOMAS:

http://psc.apl.uw.edu/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/

[2] Some further nice info graphics on sea ice, courtesy of Zachary Labe:

https://zacklabe.com/arctic-sea-ice-volumethickness/

[3] Sea Ice Prediction Network (providing forecasts for sea ice extent, analysis, and many other things):

https://www.arcus.org/sipn

Manifold Markets · Accepted Answer

Yes — resolved on Feb 13, 2024 by Manifold Markets prediction market.