How many starships will be launched before 2030?

Question

all launch attempts where the goal was to get to earth orbit or farther will count (transatmospheric tests like the last one would also count, so we're at 1 as of 24.04.2023)
i will use whatever source i deem appropriate, starting with https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_SpaceX_Starship_flight_tests#Orbital_Flight_Tests_(2023%E2%80%93)

Manifold Markets · Answer

The current median estimate is 0.6034402309230483 according to Manifold Markets prediction market (as of May 26, 2026).