How many starships will be launched before 2030?

Question

all launch attempts where the goal was to get to earth orbit or farther will count (transatmospheric tests like the last one would also count, so we're at 1 as of 24.04.2023)
i will use whatever source i deem appropriate, starting with https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_SpaceX_Starship_flight_tests#Orbital_Flight_Tests_(2023%E2%80%93)

Manifold Markets · Answer

The current median estimate is 0.7053388868299248 according to Manifold Markets prediction market (as of Jun 13, 2026).