Will there be an ad using at least 10 seconds of AI-generated video at the 2025 Super Bowl?

Question

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is at least one advertisement during the 2025 Super Bowl that features a minimum of 10 seconds of video generated primarily by AI tools. The 10 seconds don't have to be consecutive.

For this market, an advertisement must have been broadcast on an official Super Bowl network during the game.  If a potential contender exists, but its use of AI generation is disputed, community judgment will determine whether or not it qualifies.

The AI-generated video content must be a significant part of the ad, not just a minor background detail.

Super Bowl promos and "sneak peeks" shown before the game do not count.

"AI-powered" tools commonly available prior to 2020 do not count - i.e. Photoshop's "smart fill" feature does not count as AI for the purposes of this question.

Ads that are not AI-generated but use AI-generated text don't count. So merely using ChatGPT's output for the ad's script won't count.

Ads for OpenAI Sora or other AI video generation tools count as well, as long as the ad itself uses said tools.

Update from 2024-03-04: a series of static AI-generated images (similar to this ad) won't count, it has to be video.

Question will resolve to N/A if there's no 2025 Super Bowl or the next Super Bowl doesn't include any ads.

Manifold Markets · Accepted Answer

No — resolved on Feb 11, 2025 by Manifold Markets prediction market.