Will there be a model with a 69%+ Chatbot Arena win rate against gpt-o1 before June 1st, 2025?

Question

Before June 1st, 2025, will any model have a win rate of 69.00%+ against all versions of OpenAI's 'o1' family on Chatbot Arena? The win rate is determined by the Fraction of Model A Wins for All Non-tied A vs. B Battles table on Arena's website.

Following naming patterns will count as 'o1':

o1

*-o1: gpt-o1, chatgpt-o1, openai-o1, etc.

o1-*: o1-mini, o1-preview, o1-beta, o1-advanced-2025-01-01, etc.

*-o1-*: gpt-o1-latest, chatgpt-o1-advanced, etc.

Examples of what won’t count: o2, gpt-o2, gpt-o1b-latest, gpt-o10, gpt-ao1-latest, etc.

Additional resolution criteria

There must be least 69 battles (excluding ties) between the new model and o1, to give the results statistical power. Arena publishes the battle count in the Battle Count for Each Combination of Models (without Ties) table.

The new model must stay above 69.00% for at least 1 week, to ensure it's not a fluke.

Market can resolve to Yes early.

Edge cases

If Chatbot Arena stops publishing the win rate table, then the last published win rate will be used as the final rate.

Same applies if the Arena shuts down for any reason, or if 'o1' is no longer ranked, or if OpenAI shuts down 'o1' for any reason.

Hacks, glitches or bugs will not count.

Current state

As of Sep 19th, 2024, o1-preview holds the #1 spot on the Arena. Sample size is small but here's how it stacks against other model families:

gpt-4o: o1-preview has a 55.43% win rate vs chatgpt-4o-latest-20240903

claude: 57.45% vs claude-3-5-sonnet-20240620

grok: 59.62% vs grok-2-2024-08-13

gemini: 68.52% vs gemini-1.5-pro-exp-0827

gpt-4: 75.00% vs gpt-4-1106-preview

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Manifold Markets · Accepted Answer

Yes — resolved on May 25, 2025 by Manifold Markets prediction market.