Will either Joe Biden or Donald Trump be elected President in 2028?

Question

Resolves YES if they win the election, even if they do not end up being inaugurated (due to illness etc). Resolves NO if someone else wins the election.

Important: this market is for the 2028 election!

Manifold Markets · Answer

Almost certainly not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 2% chance (45 traders, as of Mar 26, 2026).