Will a person under the age of 70 be elected US President in 2028?

Question

Resolves YES if a person born on Nov 8th, 1958 or later wins the US Presidential election, even if they do not end up being inaugurated (due to illness etc). Resolves NO if a person born on Nov 7th, 1958 or earlier wins the election.

Important: this market is for the 2028 election!

Manifold Markets · Answer

Very likely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 90% chance (38 traders, as of May 1, 2026).