Donald Trump remains president after January 2029

Question

This market resolves YES if Donald Trump continues to serve as President of the United States after January 20, 2029 (the constitutional end date of his second term) for at least 6 months (question resolves on July 20 2029. This 6 month buffer is to prevent timing issues, e.g. a delayed inauguration of his sucessor).

Resolves NO if he leaves office on or before January 20, 2029.

Resolution criteria: Official government records and news reports confirming Trump's status as president after January 20, 2029.

Sources:

Constitutional term limits: https://constitutioncenter.org/blog/the-22nd-amendment-and-presidential-service-beyond-two-terms

Second term timeline: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_presidency_of_Donald_Trump

Update 2025-04-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Continuity of service: If Donald Trump stops being president at any point, even if he later returns, the market will resolve as NO.

No retroactive recovery: A temporary exit from office will disqualify continuous service.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Almost certainly not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 3% chance (15 traders, as of Oct 15, 2026).