My friend is a LessWrong user with enough Karma to press the red button in the first few hours of the celebration. I am working on convincing him to do so, making the following market efficient:

We had an initial discussion where I explained to him the incentives for agreeing to defect. He hasn't yet agreed to share this discussion, but in summary he agreed to defect initially, and then changed his mind. We agreed to continue discussing this over the weekend.

My friend will be happier to defect as the percentage in the attached market increases, among other things.

This will resolve to YES if my friend agrees to defect, and we successfully take down LW in the first 25% of the day. It will resolve to NO if my friend does not agree to defect, or if someone else presses the button before him. 

Sep 24, 12:51pm: It will also resolve to NO if my friend decides to opt out of the ability to press the button.

Sep 24, 1:00pm: My friend agreed to share the discussion, here it is:

 @FRIEND how much for pressing the red button on petrov day

 Having said that, I’ll give you 100 bucks.

 No I was asking how much would you do it for

 lol, I got like [REDACTED] karma there. I’m a respected citizen.

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KTEciTeFwL2tTujZk/lw-petrov-day-2022-monday-9-26

 If you want you can opt out of pressing the button

 > At the start of the 24-hour celebration, only those with 2,300 karma or more will be able to successfully launch. Every hour after that, the karma required to destroy the frontpage drops by 100 points.

 If you do have as much karma as you say, we could [REDACTED] and make a huge profit from this

 I don't have that much karma, I would have to wait until the very end

 It starts at 3AM UTC so you would have to press it at [REDACTED] with your current karma

 Well there is a 96% chance that someone else will press the button

 If we do it ourselves we can get a bunch of fake internet points and teach a lesson on prediction markets

 I already have a lot of money in the one regarding the button will be pressed or not

 But what if I defect against you by not defecting against them?

 And teach you a lesson about trusting defectors.

 In most futures, you won’t even know about my cunning defection

 I already have someone else with a bit less karma than you

 So if I don't do it with you, worst case I just win like 20 mana less

 Because I can make a bigger profit with you

 But you’ll need to remind me as I will probably forget.

 They do get really sad when they fail every year.

 Do you plan on being awake by [REDACTED]?

 You know what. I changed my mind. I don’t want to defect.

 Do let me know if you change your mind :laugh: