[Metaculus] Will there be major civil unrest or rioting in America before 2031?

Question

Will there be major civil unrest or rioting in America before 2031?

Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.

Resolution criteria

Several resolution criteria for these types of questions have been put forward. I prefer the latest offered by Jgalt:

For the purposes of this question, 'major civil unrest or rioting' is defined as an event of rioting or civil unrest in which any of the following conditions is met:

At least 50 people die directly due to violence, either due to the actions of rioters or other civilians, or police, military, national guard, or other law enforcement or government agents.

At least 10,000 people are arrested by police, military, national guard, or other law enforcement or government agents.

These counts will be cumulative for any given 30-day period. Deaths and arrests need not be from a single instance of unrest and instead can be from many.

For deaths to count toward the overall death toll, the deaths must occur within the context of an event of rioting or civil unrest; deaths from a generic mass shooting or a series of homicides that occur outside of the context of a riot shouldn't count towards the 50.

Further, deaths that occur due to medical emergencies that aren't related to rioting or unrest do not count (for example, someone dying of a heart attack while in a crowd of rioters).

Suicides also do not count.

Arrests must also be made in the context of an event of rioting or civil unrest.

This market is managed by a bot. Once the original question resolves this market should automatically resolve the next time the bot is run. If the original resolved more than a day ago and this question is still open, ping @jskf. I might resolve this N/A if I find out it's a duplicate of an existing question within three days of market creation.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Likely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 71% chance (19 traders, as of Jul 12, 2026).