Will there still be an active Russian military base in Armenia in 2026?

Question

According to Wikipedia (under Current bases, not Former bases!!), will there be an active Russian military base located in Armenia in 2026?

Today, there’s the 102nd Russian Military Base located in Gyumri. If this base is still operational on January 1st, 2026, this market will Resolve YES. If the base has shut, this market will remain open through 2026 to see if another base becomes operational during the year.

Despite having a number of incidents on/off the base, a slight majority of Armenians supported the base in 2015 (pre-Ukraine war).

A June 2015 poll in Armenia found that 55% of respondents "find the presence of any other state’s or structure’s military bases in Armenia acceptable", mostly citing the need of protection against Turkey (24%) and Azerbaijan (16%).

Also bet on the wider, more global market:

(https://manifold.markets/embed/mattyb/which-countries-will-have-active-ru)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Almost certainly — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 99% chance (9 traders, as of Dec 29, 2025).