Will the next Republican Speaker of the House (after Mike Johnson) be a white male?

Question

Throughout my entire life, the Republican Speaker of the House has always been a white male. This is actually true all the way back to 1860, when William Pennington held the position.

Will the next Republican Speaker of the House (whenever they take the gavel from Mike Johnson, or the prior D leader) be another white male?

The close date has no relation to the market.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Likely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 80% chance (27 traders, as of Jan 21, 2026).